Daring to predict Crypto assets prices using Yearly Pivots & Unseen ones

Here we are at the beginning of 2022. What kind of year awaits us in the Crypto and legacy Financial markets? prophecy was given to fools, but those who dared practicing it never had Market Pivots.

As I’ve mentioned many times before, my affection to this simple indicator is derived out of three reasons:

1. It’s simplicity
2. It’s effectiveness
3. it’s ability to plot a course into the future.

You can read my previous posts, watch an explanation, or read dozens of tweets explaining Pivot trading and analysis. You can also just keep on reading and learn as we go along, since it is NOT a rocket science.

I’m going to start by saying there are a few things I’ll be looking at when analyzing the Yearly 2022 Pivots in the Crypto market. The first thing I’m looking at is how price has opened the year. Is it above or below the Yearly Pivot? This would be my first indication to establish a very modest and easy to change yearly Bias. Price above the Yearly Pivot is a bullish signal, and below it is a bearish one.

Next I’m examining the nearest levels to the Yearly Pivot and their profit potential for the first and highly likely trade of the year. I’m looking both directions, to the upside where the Yearly R1 is, and to the Down side where the Yearly S1 awaits. Then, I’m watching deeper profit potentials to the up and down side. On the up side I’m looking at R5 which offers a high profit potential for a very bullish year and to the R10 in the case of ridiculously Mooning, where price just says goodbye to gravity and any common sense. I’m also checking Lower levels to the down side like the S2, if they exist.

BTC & ETH show their promise

Let’s Apply this with the market maker Bitcoin. Here’s Bitcoin’s Weekly chart with Yearly Pivots plotted on it, including my Indicator that plots the Pivots never plotted before.

In the case of Bitcoin, you can indeed see that the First week’s candle (as it currently stands) is opening the year below the Yearly Pivot, hence my current bias is to the downside. And as a side note, this has implications to the market as a whole - if Bitcoin is going down, the whole market goes with it!

The first trade that the year offer to the downside is to the S1 (If price gets there) at around $26k and offering almost a 45% move. The second tarde down, which is highly unlikely (says who?) is to the S2 at ~$6500 offering 87% move from the Yearly Pivot.

Now lets think in more bullish terms. The R1 is at ~$46.6k offering a 42% move up from the Pivot. The Yearly R5 is at almost $150k offering a move of above 200% while the case of price going full moon is at almost at $250K with a 420% move up!

Putting these Numbers into a table would look like this:

Let’s have another example with the crowd’s favorite Ethereum:

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum is actually opening the year still above the Yearly Pivot. Normally I would call it a bit of Bullish bias but as I’ve mentioned before, if Bitcoin goes down then the whole market goes with it. This has always been true until it wouldn’t (“The flippening”).

The downside it offers for a a move to the Yearly S1 is 58% while the move to the first Resistance level in the opposite direction offers 77%. A very bullish move to the R5 will take Ethereum to the ~$14.5k with a 370% move, and going bananas will send it to the R10 at ~$26k with a 756% move from the yearly pivot.

To sum it up:

An opportunity for a portfolio re-shuffle

I took the liberty to plot the same trade logic from above, to 15 crypto assets. They were chosen mainly because, well, because I follow them. In terms of old school assets we have Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Cardano. The rest are more of those hot potatoes that the market mostly loved last year.

I have also made to all mentioned assets, charts on Tradingview as public trading ideas and will link to them further below, so it’s easy to return later in the year and watch if indeed any of this Pivot speculation played out.

The full table is the following:

What can we learn from this?

Let’s start with the downside. If 2022 will indeed be a year of the bear, it is reasonable to speculate that there is a high degree of probability to see Bitcoin not stopping before meeting the Yearly S1 at $26k and with it moving respectively the other assets on the list to a trajectory to meet their own S1's. If this plays out, Bitcoin will be the least hammered asset with a predicted loss of 45% followed by Ethereum with 58% and Matic with 60% loss. If you’d like to go short you’d better be off with Sushi, XRP or KSM, all offering above 95% down side.

On the other hand, If market lords decides to open a bullish wave then your best bet with high probability will be reaching the R1. In this case Matic, Luna and Solana are the ones who are offering to double the investment, while not far behind are assets like Avax, Fantom and chromia. Worst performer to the R1? yes, you guessed it, Bitcoin with 45%.

As you can notice from the table above, this year is offering mostly dreamy upsides, with multiplayer around X2 to the R1, X4-X6 to the R5 and X7 to X11 on the R10. Diving closely into the profit and loss potential can offer smarter options of re-balancing your portfolio on the Technical side, which ignores fundamentals. That’s a unique offer that only very few Indicators can offer, if any.

And now to the painstakingly work of charting all of this up, so you don’t have to do it yourself. below are the links to the charts of all 15 assets mentioned here. You can follow those trade ideas as they develop and see if my Pivot worship is justified or less justified. Don’t forget you can install the Indicator on your charts and can see it work not only on the Yearly Pivots, but also on the Monthly, weekly and even daily time frame.

Here they are:

Bitcoin chart, Ethereum chart, Dot chart, KSM chart, Link chart, CHR chart, Sushi chart, SOL chart, Luna chart, XRP chart, ADA Chart, Matic chart, Atom chart, Fantom chart and AVAX chart.

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